Oops, looks like I missed my return target by a bit. I don't have time to really sit down and write a bunch about how my season went, how incredible The Best Night of Baseball Ever was (like you don't already know), or what all I've been up to this off-season, but some of that's on its way.
Here's a quick shot, though, for those that are getting their feet wet on the nutrition front. I just finished reading Dr. Jonny Bowden's The 150 Healthiest Foods on Earth, and I have to say that I learned a lot. I knew a bunch from frequently reading Brian St. Pierre's blog, but I was shocked at how much good stuff I was already eating.
The part that didn't really shock me was how good for me some of my least favorite foods are. I'm talking about the brassica family which includes broccoli, cauliflower, cabbage, brussel sprouts, and kale among its members. The nutrient density and anti-cancer properties make them Dr. Bowden's superstar vegetable family. The knowledge I gained from reading this book helped me push past my hatred of these vegetables and actually starting eating them, and I'm sure I'll be better off for it.
You win this round, broccoli, but you'll never make it onto one of my pizzas.
That title could probably be a rallying cry for just about any Major League Baseball organization, but in this case, it means this blog is going on hiatus. Given my random publishing schedule, most of you probably won't even notice that I'm gone.
As a part of my employment as a pro scout, I have been asked to cease blogging activity from now until October 1, 2011. The blog will not be taken down.
The PITCHf/x database will continue to run as it has for the past couple of seasons. Of course, thanks to this off-season's upgrades, it's now much prettier.
I'll be doing the normal scouting stuff, with half the number of teams of most scouts (to help me balance school and other work responsibilities), and I'll also be doing some video analysis. There's no telling what kind of impact I'll have, but I certainly hope it's big enough that my baseball career isn't one-and-done. Either way, it's going to be a fun season.
As you read this, I'm headed to (or already in) Phoenix, Arizona for Spring Training. My pro scouting adventure has begun.
For two years in a row, my attendance prediction model has come extremely close to predicting the actual attendance at the team's win level.
In 2009's prediction, my model overshot actual attendance by 1.15%. In 2010, it overshot actual attendance by 0.85%.
The model has been updated to include data from 2010.
Again, the model predicts an increase in attendance. At last year's win level -- 90 wins -- the model predicts an average attendance of 33,645 per home game. To fall below last year's attendance level, the model says that the Rangers would have to win fewer than 77 games.
Coming off a World Series appearance, it will be interesting to see how the model holds up for 2011.
Regression Notes
The standard error is down from last year's 2,602 attendees per game to 2,560. The R-square and Adjusted R-Square values are nearly identical to the previous year's -- all three years have been right around 0.90 for both values.
Thanks to the accuracy of last year's prediction, the t Stat and P-value numbers for all three independent variables improved. The growth factor variable (inflation) is still the least significant of the three with a t Stat of 1.415, but again, removing it from the calculations results in larger errors.
Playoff Probability
There were no significant changes to the playoff probabilites for each win level in the AL West. The 90% barrier is crossed at 95 wins, and the 50% barrier is crossed at 91 wins.
I'm keeping it short-and-sweet this time to avoid repeating what I've said in the past. If you'd like to read my previous articles, which are good if you'd like to read about how I constructed my model, check out the links below:
Traditional baseball conditioning does not make sense, particularly when it comes to pitchers. Pitchers are expected to run long distances and ice their arms after they throw. Many coaches insist that body-weight lunges, push-ups, crunches and plyometrics are the only strength exercises a pitcher will ever need.
The truth of the matter is that this traditional concept of conditioning for baseball is completely backwards. Baseball is a sport composed of brief, explosive physical exertions followed by periods of complete energy recovery. (Triples and inside-the-park homeruns are potential exceptions for complete energy recovery.) Extended cardiovascular training in the form of running poles, getting on a treadmill, or riding a resistance bike, is, for the most part, a complete waste of time if the goal is to get better at baseball.
Baseball is an explosive sport where massive force is created in a very short amount of time. It only makes sense that baseball players should train to be explosive. There's nothing explosive about an extended light jog or crunches. Plyometrics and other body-weight exercises, while including some explosive elements, are limited by the athlete's body weight. There is no room for progression once the athlete adapts to his own body weight.
Throwing a baseball with maximum effort involves just about every major skeletal muscle in the body. This makes it one of the best indicators of a baseball player's explosive strength.
I don't think there's a single coach on the planet that would disagree with what I've said so far, not even Dick Mills who thinks strength training is not only unhelpful but also dangerous.
The thing about explosive strength -- and this may shock some of you -- is that you can improve it by lifting heavy things, like in a weight room.
This is the driving principle behind Driveline Baseball's (Seattle, WA) Velocity Development Program, a comprehensive baseball training program where the main focus is throwing velocity.
Kyle Boddy designed the program and coaches the athletes that are a part of it. The program is split between baseball skill activities, such as defense and mechanics, and strength training.
Regarding the naysayers, Boddy offered, "What they don't get is that training for strength and power also helps young athletes to train general motor patterns, which has a clear translation to all sports. Learning to use hip drive in the back squat, thoracic extension in the front squat, and explosive jumping in the power clean all translate to any sport - you name it, it transfers."
Because throwing a baseball involves so many muscles, the Velocity Development Program is not a program that focuses solely on the arm. As Boddy mentioned, his program utilizes various squat techniques and power cleans, but he also includes deadlifts -- perhaps the best measure of someone's overall brute strength -- and soft-tissue work. He adds, "When they first arrive, they do their self-myofascial release, wrist weight warmups, and resistance band work. The warm-up is pretty fast - it takes about 8 minutes."
The key to the program isn't just getting the athletes to lift the weights, it's to get them to work hard. Not every athlete who walks through the door is ready for the program. They can't all handle it. Boddy says, "We're pretty selective about who we bring in - we're seeking to create a hard-working and competitive atmosphere first and foremost. So we've had to screen out a few guys."
Selecting the right athletes is only part of the equation, though. Working with a coach one-on-one isn't always the best way to stay motivated. This is where the semi-private training model comes in.
Semi-private training, as a basic concept, is like group exercise. A small group of athletes, usually 2-4, train together as a group with a [semi-]personal trainer or coach.
Boddy credits Eric Cressey and Pete Dupuis as having influenced this aspect of his program. He adds, "Semi-private training works better for the athlete and for our business model - we get to train a larger group of guys and fill our facility up, and they get cheaper rates and a better atmosphere to train in. We tend to group them by age first, then skill second, so they have peers they can relate to."
Athletes are competitive by nature, and by throwing a handful of them together as a strength training group this competitive nature helps them push each other to work harder.
Now, if fixing the way baseball athletes are trained were as simple as saying, "Train for explosive strength," I would have said that at the top, and this article would have been very, very short. The truth is that you need a coach that knows how to train for explosive strength.
It's not about getting big (a.k.a. "hyooge") or moving large amounts of weight. It's about becoming explosive and training the correct motor patterns. Exercise selection, volume, intensity, and recovery are all factors that must be taken into consideration no matter how experienced the lifter is.
Kyle's results can do a lot of the talking for me, but I know from experience that Kyle has the knowledge and skillset required to manage these factors. If you live in the Seattle area, I strongly recommend taking a good, hard look at Kyle's program.
You can read more about Driveline Baseball's Velocity Development program here:
StrikeOut Strippz has been a product I've wanted to write about for some time. Unfortunately, it looks like I waited too long. The online store for purchasing these is no longer functioning, and the inventor's blog has not been updated since June 2009. Instead of writing my typical "Please, don't buy this" stuff, I'm simply going to highlight a few reasons why this product was something you shouldn't buy.
If you've heard of using a towel for pitching drills, then you can probably get a fairly accurate concept of how to use the StrikeOut Strippz. Simply imagine attaching the towel to your fingertips -- or maybe strapping the towel to the back of your hand -- so you don't have to grip it when doing the drill. Voila! You've got yourself a do-it-yourself version of the StrikeOut Strippz.
There's no question that a vinyl strip (Why are there two strips???) attached by a glove is going to be a lot easier to use, and convenience means something. Maybe spending $24.95 on such a product would have made sense for you.
The Strippz were part of a package that included instructional DVDs meant to teach coaches and parents how to teach the inventor's idea of "perfect mechanics" to their young pitchers. The methods involved rhyming (so you know it has to be correct!) and a few questionable body and arm positions.
The methods are no doubt successful, though the techniques being taught remain questionable. Pitchers who followed the teaching cues learned repeatability, a very valuable attribute for any pitcher because it leads to improved control. Of course, repeatability is only achieved through practice.
Practicing anything enough is going to result in learning. Repetition leads to repeatability. It's that simple. The trick is having something to repeat, and that's exactly what this product did. Whether or not the StrikeOut Strippz mechanics were the best thing to repeat -- and judging by the materials on their website, they aren't -- remains to be seen.
If you really want to learn how to be a better pitcher, find an actual pitching coach. There's only so much that can be contained in a 76-minute DVD.
If all you need is a system to repeat and your money is tight, you should use Google and find someone who's giving away "perfect" mechanics for free. There's no reason to pay for it.
To have a look at this questionable product for yourself, click here, but please, don't buy this (if the ordering system is ever fixed).
Do you know of another stupid pitching product out there? Tell me about it.
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