For some time, I've been looking for a way to appropriately integrate run values into the PITCHf/x database. I have read articles at Beyond the Boxscore, Inside The Book, and Cubs f/x, but I am no closer to getting what I want. Unfortunately, I lack the resources and time to find the answers myself.
Many tables have been published with run expectancies for the 12 ball/strike count states for various time periods. Tables have also been published for the 24 base/out states. Because the two tables contain different representations of the same data, there's no way to combine them. What I would like to see -- and I'm sure this makes me a sadist -- is a run expectancy table for the 288 ball/strike/base/out states.
Yes, that's one hell of a matrix to process, but there are two thougts that seem to be the beginning of arguments against the two relatively simple approaches:
- The thought against only using the 12 ball/strike count states table: a first-pitch strike in a bases loaded, no out situation has to effect the run expectancy more than a first-pitch strike in a bases empty, two out situation, right?
- The thought against only using the 24 base/out states table: an 0-2 single with a runner on first base has to effect the run expectancy more than an 3-0 single with a runner on first base, right?
Admittedly, I don't have the knowledge or skills necessary to issue either of those thoughts as facts, so I have posed them as questions. It seems logical, though, doesn't it?
I think an appropriate time period for the analysis to cover is 1998-present -- since the last expansion.
Does anyone know if anyone has tackled this subject, successfully or otherwise? Is this covered in a book that I have not yet read -- possibly even one that I have read?
Consider this an open call for help in this matter.