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Entries in 2009 MLB Draft (8)

Friday
05Jun2009

Draft Prospect: Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS

Unlike Matthew Purke, Tyler Matzek is routinely regarded as a pitcher with an easy, repeatable delivery. Matzek is able to throw 90-94 mph with ease and has recently been as high as 98 mph according to several reports. He throws a curveball that has plus potential, but scouts from the Major League Scouting Bureau have a lesser opinion of its current quality than Baseball America does.

Dr. Mike Marshall weighed in on Matzek in his Questions/Answers 2009 file. If you are at all familiar with Dr. Marshall's view of the 'traditional' pitching motion, you'll recognize that his comments border on praise. Dr. Marshall had the following to say:

Mr. Matzek's version of the 'traditional' baseball pitching motion is not as injurious as many I have seen... I doubt that he will suffer a serious pitching injury. However, he will never be as good as he should have been.

As with Purke, I was intrigued by the generic mechanical comments I'd read in scouting reports. This time, though, the comments were about an easy, repeatable delivery. The comments from Dr. Marshall further piqued my interest. I dug around and found a video similar to the one I used for my Purke article.

Here's the video I looked at, courtesy again of Baseball Factory:

Even though it's a warm-up pitch, I chose to use the first pitch in the video as my example. The stills in the two images below were taken from this same pitch.

Important stages of Matzek's arm action. Click to view larger image.

In the first frame, you can clearly see that Matzek takes the ball primarily toward second base during his pick-up. If you looked at my review of Purke's mechanics, you'll remember that he took the ball primarily toward third base. Skipping ahead to the fourth frame (approximately the release point), you can see that Matzek has much less side-to-side movement than Purke. His driveline to the plate is very direct compared to most 'traditional' pitchers, extremely efficient.

The second frame shows Matzek's body position at foot-plant, in the 'traditional' cocked position, where he seems to have a nearly straight-forward stride. At 90° of flexion, the ulnar collateral ligament is at its most vulnerable. At this stage Matzek's arm is fairly straight, so the late forearm turnover and reverse forearm bounce that follow are less of a problem. This is part of why Dr. Marshall views Matzek's arm action as less injurious.

As Matzek increases his elbow flexion, he also tilts his shoulders to the glove side and raises his elbow. This action helps limit his forearm flyout by effectively straighening his elbow's path. At his approximate release point, you can see that his forearm is nearly vertical.

In the video Dr. Marshall reviewed (of a side session), he mentioned that he was concerned about Matzek's forearm flyout. The video that I reviewed seems to show that Matzek's forearm flyout is minimal.

Matzek's follow-through from release to finish. Click to view larger image.

The first frame in this image is from shortly after release. Matzek's elbow is flexed and his wrist is pronated to the point where his palm is nearly facing up. This indicates two things: (1) Matzek pronates his release very powerfully, and (2) Matzek may be using his latissimus dorsi to internally rotate his arm instead of using his pectoralis major to horizontally flex his arm.

At this normal frame rate, it is practically impossible to tell for certain whether or not Matzek pronates into release, but he sure appears to be doing so.

Dr. Marshall says that because Matzek's stride is "too closed," he must be using his pectoralis major to horizontally flex his pitching arm. If he were actually horizontally flexing his arm to throw the baseball, I don't believe that Matzek could achieve the arm position shown in the first frame of this image.

By the second frame, his primary arm deceleration phase is done. The continuation of his body action in the next two frames causes his arm to wrap across his body. I believe the appearance of recoil is an illusion created when Matzek stands up to field his position.

So... what are you saying?

Matzek throws some high-quality pitches from a relatively safe, easy, and repeatable delivery. From an objective perspective, there are fewer risk factors than most 'traditional' pitchers. For a high school pitcher, he's a lot more polished than I would have expected.

I have reason to believe that he throws three different fastballs and a pronated curveball. After doing my research, I like him more than I did, and I'm kind of upset that there's no chance he'll be around when the Texas Rangers pick at #14. I guess I can hope, though.

You might also want to check out dirtberry's YouTube channel for more on Tyler Matzek.

Tuesday
02Jun2009

Draft Prospect: Matthew Purke, LHP, Klein HS

Spring, TX - a suburb of Houston - has produced quite a number of early-round draft picks over the past several years. It looks like Klein's Matthew Purke will join a list that includes former Klein players Josh Barfield, Chris George, and David Murphy, as well as Josh Beckett, Sam Demel, and Daryl Jones from Spring High School.

Purke stands at 6-foot-3 and weighs 180 pounds. Scouts like his projectability and believe he could add velocity as he gets stronger. He already sits at 92-94 MPH, occasionally throwing a tick or two harder. His primary off-speed pitch is a slurve-type offering called a slider by Baseball America and a curve by the Major League Scouting Bureau. Whatever you call it, it's one of the best breaking balls in this year's high school draft class.

Conflicting reports from the same two sources have his change up somewhere between "unknown" and "good."

Purke is believed to have a strong commitment to Texas Christian University in Fort Worth, so signability has become a concern for some clubs. Rumors of his signing bonus demands have ranged from $2 million to $7 million, but the most recent rumors have him in the neighborhood of $3 million.

Almost every report on Purke has mentioned something about questionable mechanics. Typically, high school deliveries are full of flaws and quirks, but rarely do these scouting reports go out of their way to mention them.

Baseball America mentions Purke's slinging action, saying that it is neither violent nor smooth. I guess that would be... Average? Typical? Expected? Outside of this specific mentioning of a flaw, I could only find generic references to his mechanics. I wanted to have a look for myself.

I located a solid video on YouTube, looked at it, and made some still photos. Here's the video, courtesy of Baseball Factory:

There are two big things that jump out at me, but first, I want to say that outside of his arm action, there really isn't much to complain about. He steps nearly straight forward, landing only a few inches closed.

Purke stays closed very well and gets great hip rotation and shoulder rotation. He even stands relatively tall through his release. His core does its job very well.

If I had to pick one part of his body action to complain about, it would have to be his somewhat stiff front leg. That might be the source of the reported inability to repeat his delivery consistently.

The still shots below were taken from the same pitch, the first one in the video.

Matthew Purke's arm action at four key points in his delivery. Click to enlarge.

Now, here are the flaws in his arm action as I see them. In the first frame, you can see that Purke's entire pitching arm has been moved about as far toward third base as possible. Skipping ahead to the final frame, you get an idea of how much horizontal acceleration takes place. When his arm finally starts moving forward, the centripetal force from the curved path results in forearm flyout. The Baseball America "slinging" comment is dead-on.

Pronated releases can help protect against the negative effects of forearm flyout, but there aren't enough frames available to be able to determine if, or to what extent, Purke pronates into his release.

The second frame shows a massive scapular load at foot plant. This puts extra stress on the anterior capsule of the shoulder, and the extra movement of the head of the humerus places the glenoid labrum at risk.

Still in the second frame, his forearm is past horizontal, avoiding an inverted arm position, but his forearm is almost 180° of external rotation from the throwing position shown in frame three. This causes a late forearm turnover.

Because his elbow is flexed to near 90° during his late forearm turnover, he experiences a pretty intense reverse forearm bounce which puts his ulnar collateral ligament at risk.

Purke's follow-through.Here's an overly simplistic look at his follow-through. The first frame shows where his arm winds up after primary deceleration. His arm continues in the curved path and winds up finishing hard toward third base. There is no recoil evident at this frame rate, and his arm winds up tucked in softly at his waist.

There could be some extra stuff going on in his shoulder, but the standard 30 frames per second video does not reveal it.

So... what are you saying?

Overall, Purke's mechanics could be a lot worse. That said, I'm not a fan of his arm action at all. The slinging action reported by Baseball America is clearly present, and he puts a lot of torque on his elbow. Long term, he has almost no chance to stay healthy with these mechanics.

Any team that drafts Purke will have to ask themselves which risk they want to take: leave his mechanics alone and risk his arm falling apart - or - change his mechanics and risk his stuff dropping off.

Saturday
04Apr2009

Scouting Ryan Berry, Rice University

Ryan Berry popped into the spotlight as a freshman at the Houston College Classic in 2007 against Baylor. He went on to have a spectacular freshman year: 11-3, 3.01 ERA, 122.2 IP, 121 H, 34 BB, 125 K. His sophomore year wasn't as awe-inspiring, but this season, he's certainly established himself as one of the best pitchers in college baseball.

Though he is currently dealing with some arm trouble, Berry's junior season was shaping up to be his best by quite a wide margin. Through 36.2 IP, Berry has posted a 1.96 ERA and allowed only 16 hits and 7 walks while striking out 31.

Like his freshman year, Berry jumped back onto the radar at the Houston College Classic, this time against Texas A&M. On February 28, 2009 at Minute Maid Park, I was there to see it.

Game: February 28, 2009 vs. Texas A&M

Pitcher IP H R ER BB K
Berry, Ryan 9.0 2 0 0 0 12

 

Fastball. Berry worked at 88-91 most of the night but reached back for a little extra late in the game hitting 92 (93 on a few guns). The pitch was moving around the zone and within the zone. I wouldn't say there was a ton of life, but there was enough to keep the Aggies from squaring up on it. Command is obvious: 12 strikeouts, 0 walks.

Curveball. Berry's knuckle curve appears to be a slightly above-average Major League offering. It has a big 11-to-5 break, and Berry mixed it very well to keep the hitters off-balance.

Slider. A "mystery" pitch was seen throughout the night; late in the game, it looked like a plus split-finger fastball. I have since been told that this pitch is actually Berry's slider. It was harder than his curve and had a sharper but shallower break that was almost straight down. Whatever it actually was, it worked.

Change up. Lost among the fastballs and breaking balls was an occasional change up. It wasn't a featured pitch, but it helped set up a few fastballs.

Mechanics. Berry's mechanics look pretty normal from his feet through his core, but his arm is definitely something to take a deeper look at.

Berry starts with a short leg kick and drifts tall through his balance point into a modified drop-and-drive stride. He does not drag his back foot, and he manges to pull it forward slightly to keep his center of mass moving toward the plate. Berry lands on the ball of his foot, and his stride is fairly neutral, maybe just a little bit toward the third-base line.

Even though Berry's stride is fairly neutral, he throws "around" his front leg instead of straight forward to the plate. His front shoulder opens just a bit early - before his front foot touches down - but in Berry's case, it doesn't flatten out his pitches. He might be able to squeeze 2-3 mph more out of his delivery.

Despite his uncommonly short arm action, Berry is still picking up the baseball when his front shoulders start to open up. He forcefully externally rotates his arm to catch up, and this adds to the layback inertia that causes reverse forearm bounce, the major risk factor for ulnar collateral ligament injuries.

As he accelerates his arm, Berry picks up his elbow very well, most notably on the first pitch in this video, but he does not do this consistently. This creates a wide variance in the amount of forearm flyout that occurs from pitch to pitch. On some pitches, his forearm flyout is very significant.

I think he could use his glove arm more actively to help with shoulder rotation.

His follow-through is pretty good. Berry's shoulder looks a little stiff, but his arm doesn't fly across his chest, and there's no significant recoil.

Based on the limited video I gathered, I found no evidence of either pronation or supination in his pitch releases. It appears that his change up might have a small amount of pronation during release.

Overall. As impressive as his numbers are, Berry's ceiling is somewhat limited. While it's possible that he could become a #2 starter at some point, a more reasonable ceiling is that of a #3 starter. I expect that his arm action will continue to cause health problems, and this may relegate him to the bullpen in order to keep him healthy and on the field.

Some clubs will shy away because Berry has already begun to have arm issues, and  some will shy away because Rice doesn't have the greatest track record of late when it comes to producing healthy Major League quality pitchers.

Berry has impressed a lot of folks so far this spring, but he's going to have to prove that he's healthy before anyone will risk a first round pick on his arm. He could conceivably be drafted as early as the end of the 1st round or as late as the 10th round. The next two months will be very important for him.

Saturday
28Mar2009

Scouting Stephen Strasburg, San Diego State University... in 40 degree weather

When Stephen Strasburg took the mound in the bottom of the first inning, it was a very breezy 45° outside. By the time he was done, it was a brutally windy 39°. The wind was blowing straight out to left at Lupton Field, and when TCU second baseman Ben Carruthers hit an 0-2 pitch just beyond the outfield fence to lead off for the Horned Frogs, it looked like it might be an interesting night.

As it turned out, the Carruthers homerun was a blip. Strasburg responded by retiring the next 14 hitters in a row, 10 of them on strikes.

Game: March 27, 2009 vs. TCU

Pitcher IP H R ER BB K
Strasburg, Stephen 8.0 3 2 2 1 14

 

Fastball. 91-99 mph. Strasburg fought with the wind in his face all night but maintained command and got ahead of hitters all night long. He started in the mid-to-upper 90s, but fell to 91-94 after the fourth inning when the wind really picked up. I don't think his body was responding well to the cold, and his fastball command suffered causing him to work off his curveball in the late innings.

Curveball. 81-84 mph. Even when the TCU hitters guessed correctly, they had little chance of squaring up on this pitch. Throughout the night, Strasburg located it with ease, throwing it wherever he pleased. TCU hitters chased it out of the zone all night.

Change up. Rarely thrown. I saw a pitch at 87 mph and a couple in the mid-70s. I'm not sure which was his change up or if either pitch actually was his change up. He was essentially a two-pitch pitcher for all 8 innings.

Mechanics. Strasburg has very traditional mechanics with excellent hip and shoulder rotation, but with what looks like a rough follow through. The clip below shows 4 pitches at 210 fps and 2 pitches at 420 fps with at least one fastball and one curveball at each speed. (Kyle Boddy at DrivelineMechanics.com took a brief look at Strasburg's mechanics this past winter.)

Strasburg starts his delivery with an easy leg pick-up. He then gathers himself before stepping forward and really driving off his back leg. Right before he lands, he turns his front hip to square his landing leg to the plate. He has a soft landing on the ball of his foot, but he then drives backward with his landing leg. This creates great hip rotation but stops his center of mass from moving forward.

Strasburg does not use a pendulum swing to pick up the baseball. He takes the ball behind his back and accelerates it toward third base as he brings the ball to driveline height. His flexed elbow moves well behind his back and reaches shoulder height before the ball. From there, he must forcefully externally rotate his arm to get the ball to driveline height. This causes late forearm turnover and increases the valgus torque that occurs during reverse forearm bounce. This is a risk factor for his ulnar collateral ligament.

When Strasburg's center of mass stops moving forward, his trunk flexes forward while his shoulders rotate and his elbow again moves far behind his shoulders. He drives his pitching shoulder all the way through his release. This is excellent, but it doesn't stop his arm from finishing violently across his chest. (At full-speed you can see his arm "bounce" off his rib cage.) This is a risk factor for the supraspinatus and the infraspinatus muscles of the rotator cuff.

One major plus in Strasburg's mechanics is the apparent pronated release of his curveball. It is definitely hard to see in this video, but the second to last pitch is your best chance to see it. As he releases the pitch, Strasburg's wrist quickly moves from a supinated to a pronated position. This allows him to powerfully drive the top of the baseball instead of pulling the ball down with a supinated grip. By doing this, a curveball is thrown with more velocity and better rotation.

Overall. Stephen Strasburg is a 6' 4", 220 lb beast of a pitcher. He has two plus-plus pitches right now and ace-quality command. He's putting up numbers that would have Mark Prior and Jered Weaver blushing. Whether or not he is picked by the Washington Nationals as the first overall selection in the 2009 MLB First-Year Player Draft, he will certainly command the largest contract.

Strasburg has some of the common flaws of traditional pitching mechanics and carries with him the associated risks. These risks will almost certainly not affect his draft status because it could be 10 years before anything goes wrong. Predicting injuries is folly, but identifying risk is always important.

In a few months, Mr. Strasburg will be a very, very rich man.

Wednesday
18Mar2009

Scouting Kendal Volz, Baylor University

Kendal Volz is a 6' 5", 225 lb right-handed pitcher with some monster stuff. Out of Smithson Valley HS (TX), Volz was among the top college juniors available for the 2009 MLB First-Year Player Draft. Baseball America pegged him as the #6 prospect on both the juniors list and the overall college list.

Volz spent the summer working as Team USA's closer allowing only 1 unearned run in 14 innings and going 8-for-8 in save chances. He works off a low-to-mid 90s fastball, a hard slider, and an improving change up.

At the Houston College Classic, Volz took the mound for Baylor University against UCLA.

Game: February 28, 2009 vs. UCLA

Pitcher IP H R ER BB K
Volz, Kendal 7.0 4 0 0 3 6

 

Fastball. Volz sat in the 87-90 mph range throughout the afternoon, a sizable drop from his 2008 velocity. Though Volz told Aaron Fitt that he thinks his velocity will return, I think there is reason for concern simply because the drop is so large. That said, it was a pretty cool day in Houston, and I won't be shocked if his velocity does return. The pitch still had great sink and some arm-side action. He showed only college-average command.

Slider. Volz's slider looks like a tight curveball with more downward action than sliding action, but not quite an 11-to-5 break. The pitch is definitely a plus. He was throwing it in the upper 70s and touching 80 with it. The break is big and sharp. He throws it with confidence and with very good command. According to Fitt, he threw more sliders (47) than fastballs (41).

Change up. The change up didn't see much action, but again, Volz threw it with confidence and command. There was good sinking action to it, but I didn't note any arm-side fade. In the low 80s, it only had a 6-8 mph separation from his fastball. To be Major League average, the pitch needs either more movement or a greater drop in velocity.

Mechanics. The video shows a classic tall-and-fall pitcher whose forearm never fully lays back.

Volz's delivery starts with a prototypical balance point after he picks up his front leg. His back leg remains stiff as he steps into his stride. When he lands, he lands slightly closed and so abruptly that he actually kicks dirt toward the plate. Volz uses this to drive his hip turn and kick start his shoulder rotation which are both good. He drags his back foot off the rubber, so his hip turn could be even better.

To pick up the ball, Volz starts with a reach back by flexing his wrist but manages to avoid bringing the ball behind his back. His elbow reaches shoulder height before the baseball but not by much, and at foot plant, he is still picking up the ball with his forearm 180° from the laid back position.

This leads to a late forearm turnover, though Volz's forearm never fully turns over. At 210 frames per second, it's hard to see clearly, but it appears that his arm only rotates about 50° to 60° behind vertical. This fairly short lay back is accompanied by some wrist extension (see photo).

By flexing the muscles on the posterior of the forearm (extensor muscles), Volz increases the valgus stress in his ulnar collateral ligament, putting it at risk. To protect the UCL from damage, valgus stress must be reduced; increasing this stress is never a good idea.

As he finishes picking up the ball, Volz brings his elbow behind his back creating a lateral "whip" in his arm action. When his shoulders start to rotate toward the plate, his pectoralis major flexes and drives his elbow toward third base. His hand follows, and this results in forearm flyout.

Volz shows good pronation after release, but only pronates into his release when he throws his change up.

He drives his pitching shoulder all the way through his release, and this creates a very controlled follow through. His arm wraps slightly across his body, but this occurs after primary deceleration and with almost no recoil.

Overall. Expected to be selected in the first half of the first round, Volz has probably slipped into the back end of the supplemental round and possibly further than that. His 2008 fastball is not there, and his command has been unpredictable - 12 walks, 8 hit batters, and 22 strikeouts through 26.1 innings pitched. Still, he has been tough to hit - limiting opponents to a .157 average - and his ERA is a very respectable 2.73.

Volz's current struggles - drop in velocity, lower strikeout rate, and bouts of wildness - are typical of a pitcher dealing with an elbow injury, and having looked at his mechanics in slow motion, I believe this could be the case. His command and velocity will be under the microscope until the draft rolls around.

If Volz falls too far on draft day, he has the option of returning to Baylor for his senior season; however, if he can iron out his command issues over the next couple of months and show scouts what he showed them last summer, he will re-establish himself as one of the best pitchers available.