Freshmen to Watch: Taylor Wall, Trevor Bauer, and Logan Verrett

At the Houston College Classic, I came across three freshman pitchers that really stood out to me. I've put together a brief scouting report for each pitcher as well as a short video clip comprised of pitches filmed at 210 frames per second.

Put these guys on your follow list.

Taylor Wall, Rice Owls. LHP, 6' 2", 180 lbs. When I heard that Wall was a freshman in the weekend rotation of one of the top baseball schools in the country, I pulled out my camera and took some notes. I was very impressed with his fastball, but it turns out that the radar guns only had him at 85-86 mph. He has a very fast arm, and he repeats his mechanics very well. He turns his change up over very well and has a promising curveball. If his fastball improves, he could find himself high up on someone's draft board.

Wall has a unique stride. I really like that he lands open, but I find the position of his foot to be a little odd. In the video, you'll see that it points far toward third base. He has a traditionally flawed ball pick-up with late forearm turnover and some reverse forearm bounce. He gets excellent shoulder rotation and has a near-vertical arm at release which I like. His follow-through looks pretty clean to me with no violence or signs of recoil.

2009 Season Statistics (as of April 12, 2009)

Pitcher	ERA	W-L	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
Wall, Taylor	4.07	4-3	48.2	48	27	22	15	46

Trevor Bauer, UCLA Bruins. RHP, 6' 1", 175 lbs. According to one source, Bauer was a projected first round pick coming out of high school in 2009. He won't even be draft-eligible, though, because he graduated high school in December and joined UCLA in January. He should be in the middle of his senior year in high school, but instead he's logging heavy innings for UCLA.

His fastball can get into the mid-90s, and he's got the makings of a plus curveball. His command was a little off when I saw him, and his curveball was easy to identify coming out of his hand. He's been dealing ever since, so I imagine he's resolved those issues.

His mechanics are similar to those of Tim Lincecum, and his arm action is pretty similar as well. Bauer is a student of Jaeger Sports (www.jaegersports.com) where they teach a "pull down phase" that's evident in his motion. Like Wall, Bauer gets his arm to a near-vertical position at release, but he also has a torque-heavy ball pick-up.

Because of his stuff, Bauer is already on the follow list for a lot of organizations.

2009 Season Statistics (as of April 12, 2009)

Pitcher	ERA	W-L	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
Bauer, Trevor	3.10	5-3	52.1	49	22	18	12	49

Logan Verrett, Baylor Bears. RHP, 6' 2", 170 lbs. Verrett came on in relief of Shawn Tolleson, and I was immediately impressed. Verrett showed command of three pitches, each of which was at least solid-average. When I saw him, all three pitches were working, and it was impressive to watch him mow down the University of Houston hitters with excellent command. His change up had great fade to it, and his fastball was 91-94 mph. His slider also showed good potential. (Baylor's coach said Verrett has command of four pitches, but in this outing, I couldn't identify a fourth.)

Verrett has very traditional mechanics, so the common flaws are present including late forearm turnover, reverse forearm bounce, and some forearm flyout. He opens up his front shoulder a little early, but it doesn't seem to affect any of his pitches. His arm is up an ready before his shoulders turn even though his front foot hasn't landed yet. This keeps his arm from having to play "catch up." He repeats his delivery very well and seems to be quite an athlete.

Verrett must have had a very strong commitment to Baylor because he went undrafted out of high school in 2008. He looked so good when I saw him in Houston, that it was easy for me to imagine him leaving Baylor for a junior college in order to gain eligibility for the 2010 draft. If his arm and stuff hold up for the next two years, I think he could jump into the mix with Gerrit Cole and Bryce Harper at the top of the 2011 draft class.

2009 Season Statistics (as of April 12, 2009)

Pitcher	ERA	W-L	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
Verrett, Logan	3.79	7-1	40.1	48	18	17	13	50

Scouting Kendal Volz, Baylor University

Kendal Volz is a 6' 5", 225 lb right-handed pitcher with some monster stuff. Out of Smithson Valley HS (TX), Volz was among the top college juniors available for the 2009 MLB First-Year Player Draft. Baseball America pegged him as the #6 prospect on both the juniors list and the overall college list.

Volz spent the summer working as Team USA's closer allowing only 1 unearned run in 14 innings and going 8-for-8 in save chances. He works off a low-to-mid 90s fastball, a hard slider, and an improving change up.

At the Houston College Classic, Volz took the mound for Baylor University against UCLA.

Game: February 28, 2009 vs. UCLA

Pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
Volz, Kendal	7.0	4	0	0	3	6

Fastball. Volz sat in the 87-90 mph range throughout the afternoon, a sizable drop from his 2008 velocity. Though Volz told Aaron Fitt that he thinks his velocity will return, I think there is reason for concern simply because the drop is so large. That said, it was a pretty cool day in Houston, and I won't be shocked if his velocity does return. The pitch still had great sink and some arm-side action. He showed only college-average command.

Slider. Volz's slider looks like a tight curveball with more downward action than sliding action, but not quite an 11-to-5 break. The pitch is definitely a plus. He was throwing it in the upper 70s and touching 80 with it. The break is big and sharp. He throws it with confidence and with very good command. According to Fitt, he threw more sliders (47) than fastballs (41).

Change up. The change up didn't see much action, but again, Volz threw it with confidence and command. There was good sinking action to it, but I didn't note any arm-side fade. In the low 80s, it only had a 6-8 mph separation from his fastball. To be Major League average, the pitch needs either more movement or a greater drop in velocity.

Mechanics. The video shows a classic tall-and-fall pitcher whose forearm never fully lays back.

Volz's delivery starts with a prototypical balance point after he picks up his front leg. His back leg remains stiff as he steps into his stride. When he lands, he lands slightly closed and so abruptly that he actually kicks dirt toward the plate. Volz uses this to drive his hip turn and kick start his shoulder rotation which are both good. He drags his back foot off the rubber, so his hip turn could be even better.

To pick up the ball, Volz starts with a reach back by flexing his wrist but manages to avoid bringing the ball behind his back. His elbow reaches shoulder height before the baseball but not by much, and at foot plant, he is still picking up the ball with his forearm 180° from the laid back position.

This leads to a late forearm turnover, though Volz's forearm never fully turns over. At 210 frames per second, it's hard to see clearly, but it appears that his arm only rotates about 50° to 60° behind vertical. This fairly short lay back is accompanied by some wrist extension (see photo).

By flexing the muscles on the posterior of the forearm (extensor muscles), Volz increases the valgus stress in his ulnar collateral ligament, putting it at risk. To protect the UCL from damage, valgus stress must be reduced; increasing this stress is never a good idea.

As he finishes picking up the ball, Volz brings his elbow behind his back creating a lateral "whip" in his arm action. When his shoulders start to rotate toward the plate, his pectoralis major flexes and drives his elbow toward third base. His hand follows, and this results in forearm flyout.

Volz shows good pronation after release, but only pronates into his release when he throws his change up.

He drives his pitching shoulder all the way through his release, and this creates a very controlled follow through. His arm wraps slightly across his body, but this occurs after primary deceleration and with almost no recoil.

Overall. Expected to be selected in the first half of the first round, Volz has probably slipped into the back end of the supplemental round and possibly further than that. His 2008 fastball is not there, and his command has been unpredictable - 12 walks, 8 hit batters, and 22 strikeouts through 26.1 innings pitched. Still, he has been tough to hit - limiting opponents to a .157 average - and his ERA is a very respectable 2.73.

Volz's current struggles - drop in velocity, lower strikeout rate, and bouts of wildness - are typical of a pitcher dealing with an elbow injury, and having looked at his mechanics in slow motion, I believe this could be the case. His command and velocity will be under the microscope until the draft rolls around.

If Volz falls too far on draft day, he has the option of returning to Baylor for his senior season; however, if he can iron out his command issues over the next couple of months and show scouts what he showed them last summer, he will re-establish himself as one of the best pitchers available.

Scouting Craig Fritsch, Baylor University

Another draft-eligible sophomore out of Baylor University, Craig Fritsch (Round Rock HS, TX) is listed at 6' 4", 180 lbs. According to Baseball America, Fritsch is the #6 draft-eligible sophomore prospect for the 2009 MLB First-Year Player Draft and the #38 overall college prospect.

This past summer, Fritsch was among the top prospects in the Cap Cod League, checking in at #18 on the Baseball America list (subscription required). The brief report on Fritsch, mentions a low 90s fastball, "a good slider and a usable change up."

Fritsch pitched against Rice University on Sunday, March 1, 2009 at Minute Maid Park during the Houston College Classic.

Game: March 1, 2009 vs. Rice University

Pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
Fritsch, Craig	5.0	7	6	4	2	7

Fastball. True to the report from the Cape, Fritsch's fastball sat at 90-92 and hit as high as 94. His stride and low 3/4 release give him a wide angle to the plate, so all of his pitches have "hidden" movement to his glove side. Fritsch gets good sink and arm-side run on his fastball that counters this "hidden" movement and augments the pitch's life. He had good control, but was a little bit wild in the zone as evidenced by the 7 hits he allowed.

Slider. His slider really looks like a side-arm or sweeping curveball to me. Fritsch's low arm angle reinforces my belief that this pitch is really a curveball. That said, the pitch has strong arm-side-to-glove-side movement as well as some downward plane. This is a great college breaking pitch, and it should play very well against wood bats. It should become at least a Major League average offering.

Change up. Fritsch's change up is quite an interesting pitch. He gets good sink on the pitch, but it doesn't fade to the arm side. This pitch actually cuts to the glove side, almost like a slow slider. Fritsch's wide-angle release point could be the sole cause. In this game, he kept it down but mostly out of the zone. To me, it looks like it can be Major League average, though it needs some work.

Mechanics. Have a look at the video.

His stride is a decent combination of tall-and-fall and drop-and-drive. Fritsch stays tall early, and then bends his leg to get a strong forward push. He starts to pull off the rubber, but drags his toe, preventing his hips from continuing forward through the pitch and stopping his shoulders from fully rotating until after primary deceleration.

You can also see that Fritsch starts his stride in the middle of the rubber and lands outside the third-base edge of the rubber. He lands very closed, but this is part of why his pitches have such a unique angle to the plate. Landing closed can lead a pitcher to throw across his body, but Fritsch gets enough of a hip turn to avoid it.

Fritsch starts to pick the ball up with something like a pendulum swing, but he cuts it off very early to hyperabduct his humerus. He has a pretty strong scapular load, but he gets his forearm vertical before foot plant.

He has a pretty late forearm turnover. You can see that it doesn't fully lay back until just before release. While his forearm is laying back, Fritsch moves his elbow up. This limits the amount of reverse forearm bounce that takes place by reducing the rotational inertia of the lay back. In the side views, the ball doesn't appear to change height at all, but in the front views, you can see the ball dip a little right before Fritsch releases it.

Fritsch shows good pronation on his pitches, but his follow-through is a little rough. The strong lateral components introduced by his stride and his scapular load cause his arm to fly across his chest after release. This can put a lot of stress on the infraspinatus and teres minor muscles of the rotator cuff, particularly when a pitcher's shoulders stop rotating before the follow-through like Fritsch. This is a small concern going forward, but may never become an issue.

Overall. Fritsch's fastball is probably already Major League average, and his slider isn't far behind. He needs to work on command of his change up, and it could become fringe-average. His control is a plus, but he lacks true command of his arsenal.

He throws a lot of strikes, probably too many, and doesn't fool college hitters as often as someone with his stuff should.

Fristch has some pretty good college stuff, and he has some projection left in his slim frame. In time, he stands a decent chance of having three pitches that are at least Major League average. He's not there yet, but if his command comes around over the next couple of months, he could see his draft stock shoot up significantly.

Scouting Shawn Tolleson, Baylor University

In his second year back from Tommy John surgery, Shawn Tolleson is expected to be among the top draft-eligible sophomores taken in the 2009 MLB First-Year Player Draft. Baseball America even pegged him as the #29 overall draft-eligible college prospect.

After hitting a groove out of the bullpen last season, Tolleson has returned to the starting rotation for 2009. Through 2 starts, though, Tolleson has yet to find his rhythm. I was on-hand at the Houston College Classic when Tolleson and Baylor squared off against the University of Houston.

Game: February 27, 2009 vs. University of Houston

Pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
Tolleson, Shawn	6.2	6	2	2	3	5

Fastball. Tolleson's fastball started out in the upper 80s and might have scraped 90 on a few radar guns but dipped into the mid 80s before he was pulled. The pitch didn't appear to have much sink, but his 10 ground outs and 2 fly outs suggest it was there. His command of the pitch was no better than college-average.

Slider. His slider was all over the place but had good movement when he was able to keep it down. Its break was unpredictable as well, sometimes sharp, sometimes lazy, and sometimes just spinning.

Change up. Despite his limited fastball velocity, Tolleson was able to get decent separation with his change up but without much tumble or fade. The change up was rarely thrown, and right now, it's clearly his third pitch.

Mechanics. Take a look at the video below. A couple of things jump out right away. The most obvious for me is his inverted W.

In Tolleson's delivery, his inverted W leads to a really late forearm turnover and significant reverse forearm bounce. These arm actions put the ulnar collateral ligament at great risk. I am not surprised that he needed Tommy John surgery coming out of high school, and I believe that these mechanics are likely to lead to more elbow trouble down the road.

In the video, it is also quite clear that Tolleson strides toward the third base side. This establishes a drive line that is not directed at the target and requires the trunk and throwing shoulder to compensate by throwing across his body just to get the ball heading toward the catcher instead of the on-deck circle.

This compensation also leads to a violent follow-through where his humerus nearly collides with his face before flying down across his torso.

When his humerus nearly slams into his face, it is likely compressing the long head of the biceps brachii against the bony structures of the shoulder girdle. During deceleration, the biceps flexes and creates tension in its long head which attaches to the glenoid labrum. The tension is magnified by the compression, and when this tension is violent enough, it pulls on the labrum and can lead to fraying and tearing (SLAP lesions). This is not necessarily a problem in Tolleson's case; the 210 frames-per-second video doesn't slow down this part of his delivery well enough to draw a conclusion.

When Tolleson drives his arm across his body, his humerus is next to his right ear one moment and down across his torso the next. This is like whiplash for the supraspinatus muscle, the most frequently torn rotator cuff muscle in overhead-throwing athletes.

Overall. Tolleson is likely still trying to get all the way back from Tommy John surgery, but in this game, he looked less like an early round pick and more like a guy who could go undrafted. Based on his late season success last year, I think it's unlikely that he will continue to struggle, but if his struggles do continue, he could return to Baylor for his junior season.

He has several risk factors for future injury: inverted W, late forearm turnover, reverse forearm bounce, and throwing across his body. As a pitcher who has a significant injury in his past, his mechanics are definitely a concern going forward.

For me, Shawn Tolleson is a wait-and-see player. He has shown great potential in the past, and despite his struggles on this night, he was able to put together a quality start. If his stuff can return to its previous level, he could be worth taking a chance on.